IN THE past few decades something amazing has happened. The share and the number of extremely poor people in the world (on the current definition, people who consume less than $1.90 a day at purchasing-power parity) has plunged. This is hugely welcome. People who live on less than $1.90 a day are very poor indeed—poor, in fact, even by the standards of the world’s poorest countries. So it is regrettable that the steep decline in poverty is unlikely to continue. Extreme poverty will probably not fall as quickly in the next few years as it has done for the past few decades. Why?
The World Bank, which tracks poverty, estimates that 1.9bn people were extremely poor in 1981. In that year, the poor accounted for 42% of the world’s population. In 2013, by contrast, only 767m people were poor. Because the world’s population has grown so much in the interim, the share of poor people in the population has fallen even faster, to just below 11%. The single biggest reason for this delightful trend is China. In 1981, almost unbelievably, 88% of Chinese (and 96% of rural Chinese) seem to have lived below the poverty line. In 2013 only 2% of Chinese were extremely poor.
That cannot continue. China will soon eradicate extreme poverty, if it has not done so already. So will countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, which have been almost as good at cutting poverty. That leaves a rump of poverty in South Asia and, especially, sub-Saharan Africa. In 2013, for the first time, more than half of the paupers in the world were African. Poverty will be much harder to root out in those places. South Asian countries like Bangladesh and India have decent economic growth but feeble welfare systems. Africa doesn’t even have the former, especially considering how quickly its population is increasing. Besides, poor Africans often live on much less than $1.90 a day. It is hard to pull exceptionally poor people (sometimes called the “ultra-poor”) over the line. Even African countries that are growing fairly well, like Ethiopia and Rwanda, will have huge poor populations for many years even if incomes rise across the board.
The most obvious but least important consequence of this change is that the world is likely to miss a target. The first of the UN’s “sustainable development goals” has the world cutting poverty to 3% by 2030. That probably will not happen. More important will be a broad loss of confidence. The war on want has gone so well over the years that a sudden slowdown will come as a shock. But at least deep poverty is contained. It is no longer a global scourge, just a South Asian and African one. That is some cause for celebration.
The Economist explains
Why the war on poverty is about to get harder
The world has been remarkably successful at eliminating poverty, but progress is slowing
May 3rd 2017by J.B.
IN THE past few decades something amazing has happened. The share and the number of extremely poor people in the world (on the current definition, people who consume less than $1.90 a day at purchasing-power parity) has plunged. This is hugely welcome. People who live on less than $1.90 a day are very poor indeed—poor, in fact, even by the standards of the world’s poorest countries. So it is regrettable that the steep decline in poverty is unlikely to continue. Extreme poverty will probably not fall as quickly in the next few years as it has done for the past few decades. Why?
지난 수십 년 간 놀라운 일이 일어났다. 세계의 극빈층(extreme poverty)의 인구와 비율(현재 기준으로 구매력 평가지수(purchasing-power parity) 1.90 달러 미만으로 하루에 생계를 이어가는 사람들)이 크게 감소했다. 이것은 대단히 환영할 만한 현상이다. 세계 최빈국 기준으로 하루에 1.90 달러 미만으로 살고 있는 사람들은 실제로 매우 가난하다. 하지만 실제로 가파른 빈곤 감소가 지속해서 진행될 것 같지 않다는 예측은 매우 유감스러운 일이다. 극심한 빈곤은 지난 수십 년간 그랬듯이 앞으로 몇 년 안에는 빠르지 감소하지 않을 것 같다. 그 이유는?
The World Bank, which tracks poverty, estimates that 1.9bn people were extremely poor in 1981. In that year, the poor accounted for 42% of the world’s population. In 2013, by contrast, only 767m people were poor. Because the world’s population has grown so much in the interim, the share of poor people in the population has fallen even faster, to just below 11%. The single biggest reason for this delightful trend is China. In 1981, almost unbelievably, 88% of Chinese (and 96% of rural Chinese) seem to have lived below the poverty line. In 2013 only 2% of Chinese were extremely poor.
세계 빈곤 흐름을 조사하고 있는 세계은행(World Bank)은 1981년에 19 억 인구가 매우 극빈(extreme poverty)하다고 추정한다. 당시 빈곤층은 세계 인구의 42 %를 차지했다. 2013 년에는 상대적으로 7억6천7백 만 명이 빈곤층에 해당했다. 세계 인구가 그 어느 때보다도 가파르게 증가했기 때문에 세계인구 중에서 빈곤층의 비율은 11 % 미만으로 훨씬 더 가파르게 떨어졌다. 이러한 긍정적인 추세의 가장 큰 이유에는 중국이 있다. 1981 년에는 거의 88 %의 중국인(농촌지역 기준으로 96 %의 중국인)이 빈곤선 이하(below the poverty line)의 삶을 살았다. 2013 년에 중국의 단 2 %인구가 빈곤층으로 살았다.
That cannot continue. China will soon eradicate extreme poverty, if it has not done so already. So will countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, which have been almost as good at cutting poverty. That leaves a rump of poverty in South Asia and, especially, sub-Saharan Africa. In 2013, for the first time, more than half of the paupers in the world were African. Poverty will be much harder to root out in those places. South Asian countries like Bangladesh and India have decent economic growth but feeble welfare systems. Africa doesn’t even have the former, especially considering how quickly its population is increasing. Besides, poor Africans often live on much less than $1.90 a day. It is hard to pull exceptionally poor people (sometimes called the “ultra-poor”) over the line. Even African countries that are growing fairly well, like Ethiopia and Rwanda, will have huge poor populations for many years even if incomes rise across the board.
하지만 이러한 현상은 지속될 수 없다. 중국은 아직 완전히 근절하지는 못했지만, 곧 극빈층을 사라지게 할 것이다. 빈곤 퇴치에 중국만큼 노력을 한 인도네시아와 베트남도 곧 극빈층을 사라지게 할 것이다. 남아시아, 특히 사하라 사막 이남의 아프리카 지역에서는 여전히 빈곤층이 남아 있다. 2013 년에 세계 빈곤 인구의 절반 이상이 아프리카 대륙에 있었다. 빈곤은 아프리카에서 근절하기 매우 어렵다. 방글라데시와 인도 같은 남아시아 국가들은 상당한 경제 성장을 이룩했으나 복지 시스템은 여전히 미약하다. 아프리카는 빠른 인구 성장 속도를 고려할 때, 경제 성장을 해놓은 게 없다. 게다가 가난한 아프리카 사람들은 하루에 1.90 달러 미만으로 극빈하게 생활한다. 매우 가난한 사람들(때로는 "초극빈층(ultra-poor)"이라고 불리기도 함)을 빈곤층으로 이동시키기는 더 어렵다. 에티오피아와 르완다와 같이 어느 정도 경제 성장을 이룩한 아프리카 국가들조차도 전반적인 수입이 증가하더라도 몇 년 동안은 수 많은 빈곤층을 쉽게 퇴치할 수 없다.
The most obvious but least important consequence of this change is that the world is likely to miss a target. The first of the UN’s “sustainable development goals” has the world cutting poverty to 3% by 2030. That probably will not happen. More important will be a broad loss of confidence. The war on want has gone so well over the years that a sudden slowdown will come as a shock. But at least deep poverty is contained. It is no longer a global scourge, just a South Asian and African one. That is some cause for celebration..
이러한 변화의 가장 분명하고도 가장 중요한 점은 세계가 목표를 놓칠 가능성이 있다는 것이다. UN의 "지속 가능한 개발 목표 (sustainable development goals) " 중 첫 번째 목표는 2030 년까지 세계 빈곤을 3 % 대로 줄이는 것이다. 실현 가능성은 요원하다. 문제는 자신감 상실이다. 빈곤 퇴치 노력이 너무나 잘 진행되어 오다가 갑작스런 경기 침체를 맞으면 충격으로 다가올 것이다. 세계는 적어도 극빈곤 문제는 어느 정도 잘 대처해 왔다. 남아시아와 아프리카 대륙이 더 이상 고통의 대상이 되어서는 안 된다. 그들은 빈곤퇴치를 통한 축하의 대상이 되어야 한다.
